Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 5.7¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 43%
$1.6K
-$392.9
9.3¢ → 5.7¢
-39% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
23 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cowcatCTR | Yesavg 10.6¢ | $1.0K | $553.39 | -$459.4 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
 tja | Noavg 87¢ | $391.5 | $424.8 | +$33.08 | 73% 867-323 (1190) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Noavg 87.4¢ | $205.8 | $222.41 | +$16.49 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
 TBill1CTR | Yesavg 5.1¢ | $156.17 | $172.66 | +$16.51 | 45% 154-188 (342) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 93.4¢ | $178.79 | $170.46 | +$0.67 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $6.44 | $6.21 | -$0.23 | 50% 357-357 (714) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 88.8¢ | $1.02 | $1 | -$0.02 | 51% 2516-2391 (4907) |
Invested
$1,046.37
Value
$553.39
PnL
-$459.4
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
tjaInvested
$391.5
Value
$424.8
PnL
+$33.08
Record
73%
867-323 (1190)
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$205.8
Value
$222.41
PnL
+$16.49
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
TBill1CTRInvested
$156.17
Value
$172.66
PnL
+$16.51
Record
45%
154-188 (342)
Invested
$178.79
Value
$170.46
PnL
+$0.67
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$6.44
Value
$6.21
PnL
-$0.23
Record
50%
357-357 (714)
Invested
$1.02
Value
$1
PnL
-$0.02
Record
51%
2516-2391 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.