Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 77¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$2.8K
$228.02
72.3¢ → 77¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
68 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Noavg 71.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$115.88 | — 7-2 (9) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 80.7¢ | $618.22 | $582.16 | -$28.4 | 89% 4653-547 (5200) |
 CarCTR | Yesavg 15.6¢ | $156 | $230 | +$74 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 TheKinginYellow | Noavg 86.3¢ | $200 | $176.08 | -$21.6 | 68% 830-398 (1228) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 68.6¢ | $142.37 | $157.75 | +$17.45 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 14.4¢ | $16.54 | $93.43 | +$76.9 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
XC xcaioxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $4.6 | -$6.2 | 77% 200-61 (261) |
Invested
$1,505.94
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$115.88
Record
—
7-2 (9)
Invested
$618.22
Value
$582.16
PnL
-$28.4
Record
89%
4653-547 (5200)
CarCTRInvested
$156
Value
$230
PnL
+$74
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
TheKinginYellowInvested
$200
Value
$176.08
PnL
-$21.6
Record
68%
830-398 (1228)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$142.37
Value
$157.75
PnL
+$17.45
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
2B9S<$100Invested
$16.54
Value
$93.43
PnL
+$76.9
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$4.6
PnL
-$6.2
Record
77%
200-61 (261)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.