Will Oregon Ducks win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 13%
$14.6K
-$55.38
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
750h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nooserac | Noavg 95.1¢ | $13.8K | $14.5K | +$666.25 | 52% 5893-5488 (11381) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $102.84 | $60.32 | -$42.52 | 41% 1998-2833 (4831) |
BU button-clickerCTR | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $682.6 | $56.88 | -$632.81 | 58% 161-116 (277) |
ND ndb1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $34.7 | $15.81 | -$18.89 | 66% 910-479 (1389) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $27.52 | $10.5 | -$17.02 | 56% 18394-14718 (33112) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $6.15 | $4.43 | -$8.67 | 21% 2286-8721 (11007) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR | Yes | $500 | $2 | -$0.56 | 40% 2661-3920 (6581) |
SC Scotty155CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $1.85 | $0.71 | -$1.14 | 18% 65-304 (369) |
NooseracInvested
$13,817.85
Value
$14.5K
PnL
+$666.25
Record
52%
5893-5488 (11381)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$102.84
Value
$60.32
PnL
-$42.52
Record
41%
1998-2833 (4831)
Invested
$682.6
Value
$56.88
PnL
-$632.81
Record
58%
161-116 (277)
Invested
$34.7
Value
$15.81
PnL
-$18.89
Record
66%
910-479 (1389)
Invested
$27.52
Value
$10.5
PnL
-$17.02
Record
56%
18394-14718 (33112)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$6.15
Value
$4.43
PnL
-$8.67
Record
21%
2286-8721 (11007)
Invested
$500
Value
$2
PnL
-$0.56
Record
40%
2661-3920 (6581)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$1.14
Record
18%
65-304 (369)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.