Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 98¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 30

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$20.8K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

85.5¢ → 98.5¢

+15% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares21,171

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

136h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Yesavg 82.6¢	$9.4K	$11.2K	+$1.8K	63% 165-98 (263)
The-Joker	Yesavg 87.3¢	$4.1K	$4.7K	+$523.94	68% 1507-701 (2208)
JJo	Yesavg 97.5¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$31.49	66% 944-496 (1440)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 87.8¢	$704.07	$767.78	+$63.71	32% 4493-9634 (14127)
ME melonmanm	Yesavg 57¢	$354.04	$450.68	+$96.64	65% 526-281 (807)
vinii	Yesavg 61¢	$131.76	$212.54	+$80.78	74% 2792-1003 (3795)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Yesavg 88.9¢	$149.55	$167.64	+$18.09	40% 174-265 (439)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Yes

Invested

$9,401.69

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

63%

165-98 (263)

The-Joker

Yes

Invested

$4,138.33

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$523.94

Record

68%

1507-701 (2208)

JJo

Yes

Invested

$3,335.04

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$31.49

Record

66%

944-496 (1440)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$704.07

Value

$767.78

PnL

+$63.71

Record

32%

4493-9634 (14127)

melonmanm

Yes

Invested

$354.04

Value

$450.68

PnL

+$96.64

Record

65%

526-281 (807)

vinii

Yes

Invested

$131.76

Value

$212.54

PnL

+$80.78

Record

74%

2792-1003 (3795)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Yes

Invested

$149.55

Value

$167.64

PnL

+$18.09

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

136h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.