Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (72%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 28¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 5

Yes72¢No28¢Ended Mon, Oct 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

16.1¢ → 28.1¢

+74% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares13,879

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,894

Combined PnL+$602.01

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

705h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 19.8¢	$1.7K	$2.4K	+$697.7	47% 474-534 (1008)
BiDiFakePolls	Yesavg 84.1¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$304.78	58% 182-132 (314)
PK pkzCTR	Noavg 10.3¢	$511.14	$1.3K	+$815.6	57% 468-346 (814)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yes	$941.59	$941.59	+$914.25	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
0xdc3E831cadCTR	Noavg 9.4¢	$66.11	$196.82	+$131.06	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
archaic<$100	Yesavg 91.6¢	$63.58	$56.12	-$7.46	85% 1906-339 (2245)
GohstCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$14	$28	+$14	49% 738-770 (1508)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$1,684.43

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$697.7

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

BiDiFakePolls

Yes

Invested

$2,109.73

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$304.78

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

pkzCTR

Invested

$511.14

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$815.6

Record

57%

468-346 (814)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$941.59

Value

$941.59

PnL

+$914.25

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

0xdc3E831cadCTR

Invested

$66.11

Value

$196.82

PnL

+$131.06

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

archaic<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.58

Value

$56.12

PnL

-$7.46

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

GohstCTR<$100

Invested

$14

Value

$28

PnL

+$14

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

705h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.1%

28.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$232.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

332.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.