Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 91¢ · $16K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$16.1K
$-1.4K
57¢ → 91¢
+60% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
3009h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
31 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL Gladius7 | Noavg 57.4¢ | $8.7K | $13.7K | +$5.0K | 48% 90-98 (188) |
 NiceDuckBroCTR | Yesavg 47.3¢ | $4.0K | $752.58 | $-3.2K | 65% 335-177 (512) |
 DumplingBMFCTR | Yesavg 44.7¢ | $3.3K | $662.25 | $-2.6K | 68% 1830-849 (2679) |
JO JoeBlack01 | Noavg 47.4¢ | $320.12 | $614.55 | +$294.42 | 60% 474-313 (787) |
 randomWalkingShrimpCTR | Yesavg 45.8¢ | $1.0K | $200.59 | -$813.39 | 77% 1204-366 (1570) |
 XAE12Archangel | Noavg 65.6¢ | $75.45 | $104.65 | +$29.2 | 66% 784-407 (1191) |
 siickCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.4¢ | $95.43 | $19.8 | -$75.63 | 57% 768-580 (1348) |
Invested
$8,702.58
Value
$13.7K
PnL
+$5.0K
Record
48%
90-98 (188)
NiceDuckBroCTRInvested
$4,044.34
Value
$752.58
PnL
$-3.2K
Record
65%
335-177 (512)
DumplingBMFCTRInvested
$3,288.8
Value
$662.25
PnL
$-2.6K
Record
68%
1830-849 (2679)
Invested
$320.12
Value
$614.55
PnL
+$294.42
Record
60%
474-313 (787)
randomWalkingShrimpCTRInvested
$1,013.99
Value
$200.59
PnL
-$813.39
Record
77%
1204-366 (1570)
XAE12ArchangelInvested
$75.45
Value
$104.65
PnL
+$29.2
Record
66%
784-407 (1191)
siickCTR<$100Invested
$95.43
Value
$19.8
PnL
-$75.63
Record
57%
768-580 (1348)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.