Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$1.0K
$331.66
44.6¢ → 91.6¢
+105% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
37 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE leegunner | Yesavg 60.9¢ | $267.45 | $371.01 | +$103.56 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
 siickCTR | Noavg 53.6¢ | $337.12 | $282.88 | -$54.23 | 57% 768-580 (1348) |
 2B9S | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $1.8 | $130.77 | +$128.97 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
PE peepeepooppoop | Yesavg 37.2¢ | $17.84 | $124.05 | +$106.21 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
 4751346<$100 | Yesavg 40.2¢ | $40.2 | $91.4 | +$51.2 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
 Slowroasted<$100 | Yesavg 66.5¢ | $33.25 | $45.7 | +$12.45 | 88% 1990-279 (2269) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | No | $1.63 | $1.63 | -$16.49 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
Invested
$267.45
Value
$371.01
PnL
+$103.56
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
siickCTRInvested
$337.12
Value
$282.88
PnL
-$54.23
Record
57%
768-580 (1348)
2B9SInvested
$1.8
Value
$130.77
PnL
+$128.97
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Invested
$17.84
Value
$124.05
PnL
+$106.21
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
4751346<$100Invested
$40.2
Value
$91.4
PnL
+$51.2
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
Slowroasted<$100Invested
$33.25
Value
$45.7
PnL
+$12.45
Record
88%
1990-279 (2269)
Invested
$1.63
Value
$1.63
PnL
-$16.49
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.