Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 9.3¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$2.6K
$-1.6K
32.2¢ → 9.3¢
-71% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 79.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$36.19 | 54% 785-659 (1444) |
 2B9S | Noavg 8¢ | $40 | $449.5 | +$409.25 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 10.3¢ | $454.65 | $443.83 | -$15.21 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
 XieGuangKunCTR | Yesavg 47.6¢ | $810 | $171.7 | -$638.29 | 51% 367-349 (716) |
 BabyIBeenWatchingYouCTR | Yesavg 66.5¢ | $979.75 | $148.95 | -$830.8 | 65% 966-523 (1489) |
 KimJonEnCTR | Yesavg 59¢ | $633.73 | $102.58 | -$492.68 | 75% 946-311 (1257) |
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.7¢ | $97.2 | $55.6 | -$41.33 | 50% 1093-1094 (2187) |
Invested
$1,239.98
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$36.19
Record
54%
785-659 (1444)
2B9SInvested
$40
Value
$449.5
PnL
+$409.25
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
viniiCTRInvested
$454.65
Value
$443.83
PnL
-$15.21
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
XieGuangKunCTRInvested
$810
Value
$171.7
PnL
-$638.29
Record
51%
367-349 (716)
BabyIBeenWatchingYouCTRInvested
$979.75
Value
$148.95
PnL
-$830.8
Record
65%
966-523 (1489)
KimJonEnCTRInvested
$633.73
Value
$102.58
PnL
-$492.68
Record
75%
946-311 (1257)
Invested
$97.2
Value
$55.6
PnL
-$41.33
Record
50%
1093-1094 (2187)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.