Consensus PnL $60K · win rate 76% (711–227, n=938) · was PM monthly #962 · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$59.5K
Record
711W / 227L
Win Rate
76.0%
of 938 settled
Batting Avg
59.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#540
Source
PM monthly #962 + pinned
Trades
27,848
Markets
1,381
Volume
$4.5M
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 14 on the consensus side (93%)- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $8.7K · now 71¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $5.2K · now 71¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (85% of 28)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $5.1K · now 77¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
- Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Yes $2.5K · now 83¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (71% of 18)
- Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Yes $2.0K · now 73¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (55% of 11)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $1.4K · now 72¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No $870 · now 87¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Yes $740 · now 73¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
Specialties
1,267 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 77¢- Finance
+5 pts
side won 72% of 64 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +9%
- NFL
+9 pts
side won 100% of 13 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +7%
- Science
+3 pts
side won 79% of 24 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +11%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 80% of 296 at an average 81¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 8% of 97)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 27% of 96)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 62% of 133)
- 70¢ and up: 74%(won 90% of 941)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.