Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will South Korea win Group E at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 1.2¢ · $2K held · ends Feb 6, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 43%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
-$773.81
58¢ → 1.2¢
-98% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1CTR | Yesavg 70¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | $-1.1K | 66% 936-492 (1428) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Yesavg 2¢ | $7.06 | $234.69 | +$227.63 | 20% 2580-10222 (12802) |
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70 | Noavg 39.5¢ | $54.97 | $137.59 | +$82.62 | 75% 110-36 (146) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 67.3¢ | $71.9 | $70.01 | -$1.52 | 15% 459-2699 (3158) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 67.3¢ | $47.12 | $46.56 | -$0.57 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 34.9¢ | $24.4 | $23.45 | -$0.95 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 76¢ | $35.2 | $33.3 | -$1.9 | 35% 18059-33813 (51872) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 21.8¢ | $9.14 | $14.07 | +$4.93 | 44% 6442-8142 (14584) |
 JohnLKellyJr<$100 | Noavg 86.5¢ | $22.5 | $8.71 | -$13.79 | 53% 1313-1177 (2490) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $2.1 | $3.35 | +$1.25 | 42% 6979-9779 (16758) |
Invested
$1,073.14
Value
$1.1K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
66%
936-492 (1428)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$7.06
Value
$234.69
PnL
+$227.63
Record
20%
2580-10222 (12802)
Invested
$54.97
Value
$137.59
PnL
+$82.62
Record
75%
110-36 (146)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$71.9
Value
$70.01
PnL
-$1.52
Record
15%
459-2699 (3158)
Both legs:
Invested
$35.2
Value
$33.3
PnL
-$1.9
Record
35%
18059-33813 (51872)
Invested
$9.14
Value
$14.07
PnL
+$4.93
Record
44%
6442-8142 (14584)
JohnLKellyJr<$100Invested
$22.5
Value
$8.71
PnL
-$13.79
Record
53%
1313-1177 (2490)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$3.35
PnL
+$1.25
Record
42%
6979-9779 (16758)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.