Will Sporting CP win the 2026-27 Primeira Liga Championship?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 93¢ · $114 held · ends May 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$114.45
$17.29
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Late
52h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BU Burkilota1<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $34.75 | $37.75 | +$3 | 63% 764-453 (1217) |
GI GingerMcKenna<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $25 | $23.25 | +$3 | 39% 3153-4977 (8130) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yes | $19.95 | $19.95 | +$3.06 | 40% 2773-4170 (6943) |
 CUTJALENHURTS<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $9.98 | $15.21 | +$5.24 | 52% 6012-5617 (11629) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 71.5¢ | $14.3 | $15.1 | +$0.8 | 49% 8976-9501 (18477) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $1.09 | $2.87 | +$2.18 | 58% 20250-14870 (35120) |
Invested
$34.75
Value
$37.75
PnL
+$3
Record
63%
764-453 (1217)
Invested
$25
Value
$23.25
PnL
+$3
Record
39%
3153-4977 (8130)
Invested
$19.95
Value
$19.95
PnL
+$3.06
Record
40%
2773-4170 (6943)
CUTJALENHURTS<$100Invested
$9.98
Value
$15.21
PnL
+$5.24
Record
52%
6012-5617 (11629)
Invested
$14.3
Value
$15.1
PnL
+$0.8
Record
49%
8976-9501 (18477)
Invested
$1.09
Value
$2.87
PnL
+$2.18
Record
58%
20250-14870 (35120)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.