Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$2.2K
$25.8
58.3¢ → 94¢
+61% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Late
4285h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
16 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dr.mett | Noavg 45.7¢ | $360.51 | $742.04 | +$381.52 | 86% 1417-234 (1651) |
 probability | Noavg 83.8¢ | $618.38 | $693.32 | +$74.94 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
TR troim | Noavg 33¢ | $118.63 | $337.92 | +$219.29 | 36% 397-691 (1088) |
TT tttt123 | Noavg 48.6¢ | $85.11 | $152.99 | +$67.87 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
FU Fulgurator | Noavg 91¢ | $181.24 | $122.54 | -$58.7 | 92% 61-5 (66) |
 CarCTR | Yesavg 57¢ | $787.37 | $82.88 | -$704.49 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $13.86 | $59.22 | +$45.36 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
Dr.mettInvested
$360.51
Value
$742.04
PnL
+$381.52
Record
86%
1417-234 (1651)
probabilityInvested
$618.38
Value
$693.32
PnL
+$74.94
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$118.63
Value
$337.92
PnL
+$219.29
Record
36%
397-691 (1088)
Invested
$85.11
Value
$152.99
PnL
+$67.87
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
Invested
$181.24
Value
$122.54
PnL
-$58.7
Record
92%
61-5 (66)
CarCTRInvested
$787.37
Value
$82.88
PnL
-$704.49
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
2B9S<$100Invested
$13.86
Value
$59.22
PnL
+$45.36
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.