Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 29

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$708.04

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 55.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,152

Combined PnL+$720.11

No4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,094

Combined PnL-$12.07

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

707h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 29.4¢	$819.18	$1.3K	+$507.12	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 77.2¢	$898.3	$643.23	-$255.07	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
Gohst	Noavg 34¢	$365.55	$596.7	+$231.15	49% 738-770 (1508)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 54.5¢	$418.21	$426.8	+$8.59	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Yesavg 20.9¢	$155.53	$375.52	+$219.99	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 52.1¢	$47.04	$50.3	+$3.26	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
TH TheFOMCGamblerCTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$52	$42	-$7	76% 102-32 (134)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$819.18

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$507.12

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$898.3

Value

$643.23

PnL

-$255.07

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

Gohst

Invested

$365.55

Value

$596.7

PnL

+$231.15

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$418.21

Value

$426.8

PnL

+$8.59

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Yes

Invested

$155.53

Value

$375.52

PnL

+$219.99

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$47.04

Value

$50.3

PnL

+$3.26

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

TheFOMCGamblerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52

Value

$42

PnL

-$7

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

707h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.5%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.