Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 9

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Wed, Dec 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$66.27

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 62.5¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,777

Combined PnL+$81

Yes5 traders

Total Value$714.53

Total Shares1,873

Combined PnL-$14.72

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 59.1¢	$998.36	$1.1K	+$82.83	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
perfectnostalgiaCTR	Yesavg 34.3¢	$364.05	$403.59	+$39.54	55% 338-273 (611)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Yesavg 51.9¢	$201.74	$148.37	-$53.37	39% 175-269 (444)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.6¢	$84.35	$91.14	+$6.78	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.8¢	$61.91	$56.23	-$5.67	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 62¢	$35.74	$20.39	-$1.83	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
SI simplemanCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$17.2	$15.2	-$2	47% 456-520 (976)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$998.36

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$82.83

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

perfectnostalgiaCTR

Yes

Invested

$364.05

Value

$403.59

PnL

+$39.54

Record

55%

338-273 (611)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Yes

Invested

$201.74

Value

$148.37

PnL

-$53.37

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.35

Value

$91.14

PnL

+$6.78

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.91

Value

$56.23

PnL

-$5.67

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$35.74

Value

$20.39

PnL

-$1.83

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

simplemanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.2

Value

$15.2

PnL

-$2

Record

47%

456-520 (976)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.