Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$1.3K
$130.08
0.7¢ → 0.8¢
+11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$138.14 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $80.36 | $120.55 | +$40.19 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $12.09 | $12.12 | +$0.03 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yes | $9.79 | $9.79 | -$29.77 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yes | $6.08 | $6.08 | -$18.48 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
DI Diabolical-Prize<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $5 | $4.96 | -$0.01 | 48% 175-192 (367) |
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $4.98 | $4.96 | -$0.01 | 73% 41-15 (56) |
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$1,020.62
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$138.14
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$80.36
Value
$120.55
PnL
+$40.19
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
Invested
$12.09
Value
$12.12
PnL
+$0.03
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$9.79
Value
$9.79
PnL
-$29.77
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$6.08
Value
$6.08
PnL
-$18.48
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
48%
175-192 (367)
Invested
$4.98
Value
$4.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
73%
41-15 (56)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.