Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Colorado Avalanche be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 9.5¢ · $900 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$900.48
-$15.48
10¢ → 9.5¢
-5% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
709h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BT BTCGambler247CTR | Yesavg 9¢ | $387 | $387 | +$21.54 | 47% 217-240 (457) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $473.33 | $378.04 | -$74.18 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $4.54 | $43.5 | +$29.85 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $45.03 | $36.84 | -$6.14 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $34.75 | $32.8 | -$1.95 | 57% 3068-2356 (5424) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $6.05 | $21.85 | +$15.8 | 45% 1905-2348 (4253) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $3.91 | $0.44 | -$0.41 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
Invested
$387
Value
$387
PnL
+$21.54
Record
47%
217-240 (457)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$473.33
Value
$378.04
PnL
-$74.18
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$4.54
Value
$43.5
PnL
+$29.85
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
Invested
$45.03
Value
$36.84
PnL
-$6.14
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$34.75
Value
$32.8
PnL
-$1.95
Record
57%
3068-2356 (5424)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$21.85
PnL
+$15.8
Record
45%
1905-2348 (4253)
Invested
$3.91
Value
$0.44
PnL
-$0.41
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.