Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 96¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 4

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$16.8K

Combined PnL

$153.89

Smart Money Entry

94.9¢ → 96¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares17,001

Combined PnL+$196.34

No4 traders

Total Value$494.6

Total Shares10,304

Combined PnL-$42.45

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI SitsToPee	Yesavg 95.1¢	$11.6K	$11.7K	+$115.39	61% 284-182 (466)
ImJustKen	Yesavg 94.2¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$69.95	53% 3043-2720 (5763)
bosshog	Yesavg 94.5¢	$944.99	$960.49	+$11	72% 1052-415 (1467)
GayPrideCTR	Noavg 4¢	$300	$333.05	-$3.47	49% 357-367 (724)
macrosteaksCTR	Noavg 5.4¢	$123.76	$139.52	-$35.27	54% 3276-2743 (6019)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 4.7¢	$11.76	$12.05	-$1.84	49% 2602-2659 (5261)
GR grinder1011CTR<$100	Noavg 3.6¢	$0.29	$9.98	-$1.87	37% 117-196 (313)

SitsToPee

Yes

Invested

$11,574.14

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$115.39

Record

61%

284-182 (466)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$3,609.9

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$69.95

Record

53%

3043-2720 (5763)

bosshog

Yes

Invested

$944.99

Value

$960.49

PnL

+$11

Record

72%

1052-415 (1467)

GayPrideCTR

Invested

$300

Value

$333.05

PnL

-$3.47

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

macrosteaksCTR

Invested

$123.76

Value

$139.52

PnL

-$35.27

Record

54%

3276-2743 (6019)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$11.76

Value

$12.05

PnL

-$1.84

Record

49%

2602-2659 (5261)

grinder1011CTR<$100

Invested

$0.29

Value

$9.98

PnL

-$1.87

Record

37%

117-196 (313)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.