Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 36¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$5.7K
$101.66
36.3¢ → 36¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
18 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 61.6¢ | $2.7K | $2.8K | +$85.39 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
AN anoin123CTR | Noavg 36¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$24.1 | 47% 474-534 (1008) |
 ChungvicularCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $975 | $912.5 | -$62.5 | 46% 49-57 (106) |
CO cowcatCTR | Noavg 26¢ | $130 | $182.5 | +$52.5 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100 | Yesavg 60.7¢ | $52.98 | $55.42 | +$2.44 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
SB sbimbgCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $18 | $18.25 | +$0.25 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
LI lineth<$100 | Yesavg 69.7¢ | $5.85 | $5.32 | -$0.52 | 41% 245-350 (595) |
Invested
$2,724.25
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$85.39
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
Invested
$1,648.51
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$24.1
Record
47%
474-534 (1008)
ChungvicularCTRInvested
$975
Value
$912.5
PnL
-$62.5
Record
46%
49-57 (106)
Invested
$130
Value
$182.5
PnL
+$52.5
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$52.98
Value
$55.42
PnL
+$2.44
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
Invested
$18
Value
$18.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$5.85
Value
$5.32
PnL
-$0.52
Record
41%
245-350 (595)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.