Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 88¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 4

Yes88¢No12¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$700.78

Smart Money Entry

78.2¢ → 87.5¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares8,679

Combined PnL+$803.72

No2 traders

Total Value$78.02

Total Shares650

Combined PnL-$102.94

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

672h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 86.6¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$49.22	38% 20-32 (52)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 56.8¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$641.03	61% 203-132 (335)
Chungvicular	Yesavg 77.4¢	$503	$572	+$65.75	46% 49-57 (106)
mrworldwide	Yesavg 81¢	$486	$528	+$39	69% 804-359 (1163)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$81.02	$90.25	+$8.72	67% 751-378 (1129)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Noavg 16.5¢	$67.29	$48.84	-$16.41	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR	Noavg 48.1¢	$115.7	$29.18	-$86.53	47% 4649-5169 (9818)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$4,531.28

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$49.22

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$1,188.99

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$641.03

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

Chungvicular

Yes

Invested

$503

Value

$572

PnL

+$65.75

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$486

Value

$528

PnL

+$39

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.02

Value

$90.25

PnL

+$8.72

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Invested

$67.29

Value

$48.84

PnL

-$16.41

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR

Invested

$115.7

Value

$29.18

PnL

-$86.53

Record

47%

4649-5169 (9818)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

672h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.9%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.