Will the Democrats win the Illinois governor race in 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 99¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 86%
$7.2K
$102.94
97.1¢ → 99¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Yesavg 97.9¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | +$39.91 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 DEGENKHAN | Yesavg 95¢ | $790.6 | $815.32 | +$24.73 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
 elmcap2 | Yesavg 98¢ | $512.92 | $506.76 | +$4.1 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
 probability | Yesavg 95¢ | $409.48 | $426.03 | +$16.34 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 bernardbulletin | Yesavg 93¢ | $376.89 | $400.6 | +$23.1 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
RO rocky42019 | Yesavg 98.3¢ | $246.92 | $247.41 | +$1.38 | 42% 1725-2358 (4083) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Noavg 1.9¢ | $18.08 | $11.46 | -$6.62 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
Invested
$4,778.43
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$39.91
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
DEGENKHANInvested
$790.6
Value
$815.32
PnL
+$24.73
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
elmcap2Invested
$512.92
Value
$506.76
PnL
+$4.1
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
probabilityInvested
$409.48
Value
$426.03
PnL
+$16.34
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
bernardbulletinInvested
$376.89
Value
$400.6
PnL
+$23.1
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
Invested
$246.92
Value
$247.41
PnL
+$1.38
Record
42%
1725-2358 (4083)
Invested
$18.08
Value
$11.46
PnL
-$6.62
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.