Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 26¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$6.1K
-$463.08
27.9¢ → 25.5¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
4825h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
24 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $2.7K | $2.5K | -$148.61 | 40% 704-1061 (1765) |
SU supersmardCTR | Yesavg 28.9¢ | $2.6K | $2.3K | -$310.69 | 39% 46-71 (117) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 72.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$6.45 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.1¢ | $60.37 | $49.22 | -$11.15 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.3¢ | $33.9 | $32.67 | -$1.23 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
DE dedidanc<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $16.75 | $18.75 | +$1.88 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
IM immanuelcanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $1.71 | $1.95 | +$0.27 | 53% 906-789 (1695) |
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$2,698.62
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$148.61
Record
40%
704-1061 (1765)
Invested
$2,641.97
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$310.69
Record
39%
46-71 (117)
Invested
$1,243.32
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$6.45
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$60.37
Value
$49.22
PnL
-$11.15
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$33.9
Value
$32.67
PnL
-$1.23
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
Invested
$16.75
Value
$18.75
PnL
+$1.88
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
Invested
$1.71
Value
$1.95
PnL
+$0.27
Record
53%
906-789 (1695)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.