Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 93¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$117.85

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 92.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,359

Combined PnL+$151.41

Yes3 traders

Total Value$36.95

Total Shares493

Combined PnL-$33.56

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

143h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKen	Noavg 90.3¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$93.67	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 92¢	$510.6	$516.15	+$2.78	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
probability	Noavg 83.5¢	$467.49	$516.06	+$49.97	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$50.58	$55.58	+$5	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.3¢	$37.06	$21.8	-$15.27	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$11.65	$7.94	-$3.71	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$40.99	$7.21	-$14.58	52% 2050-1868 (3918)

ImJustKen

Invested

$3,781.79

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$93.67

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

cocococococo

Invested

$510.6

Value

$516.15

PnL

+$2.78

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

probability

Invested

$467.49

Value

$516.06

PnL

+$49.97

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$50.58

Value

$55.58

PnL

+$5

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.06

Value

$21.8

PnL

-$15.27

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.65

Value

$7.94

PnL

-$3.71

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.99

Value

$7.21

PnL

-$14.58

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

143h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.7%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.