Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 97¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$3.7K
$13.21
94.2¢ → 97¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
4871h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ImJustKen | Yesavg 94.1¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$79.87 | 53% 3036-2716 (5752) |
 probability | Yesavg 95.5¢ | $449.24 | $456.08 | +$7.55 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Yesavg 92.4¢ | $147.09 | $154.46 | +$7.37 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
 bernardbulletin<$100 | Yesavg 96.1¢ | $89.34 | $90.21 | +$0.73 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
CO cowcatCTR | Noavg 7.3¢ | $96.15 | $60.68 | -$79.18 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Noavg 5¢ | $1.01 | $14.72 | -$5.04 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
 FrozenParasite<$100 | Yes | $4.13 | $4.13 | +$1.91 | 55% 463-373 (836) |
ImJustKenInvested
$2,820.53
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$79.87
Record
53%
3036-2716 (5752)
probabilityInvested
$449.24
Value
$456.08
PnL
+$7.55
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$147.09
Value
$154.46
PnL
+$7.37
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
bernardbulletin<$100Invested
$89.34
Value
$90.21
PnL
+$0.73
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
Invested
$96.15
Value
$60.68
PnL
-$79.18
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$1.01
Value
$14.72
PnL
-$5.04
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
FrozenParasite<$100Invested
$4.13
Value
$4.13
PnL
+$1.91
Record
55%
463-373 (836)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.