Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 98¢ · $10K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$10.1K
$1.8K
77.9¢ → 97.9¢
+26% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 97.3¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$19.6 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
AV Avamax | Noavg 97¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$17 | 81% 421-101 (522) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 60¢ | $900 | $1.5K | +$567.75 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
CD CDAP1 | Noavg 46¢ | $290.11 | $1.4K | +$438.89 | 30% 11-26 (37) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 44¢ | $220 | $1.3K | +$729.23 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
AV aviato | Noavg 94.6¢ | $453.54 | $469.07 | +$15.53 | 84% 2440-449 (2889) |
 GohstCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $4.16 | $0.56 | -$3.6 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
DEGENKHANInvested
$3,496.65
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$19.6
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
Invested
$1,940
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$17
Record
81%
421-101 (522)
0xheavy888Invested
$900
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$567.75
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
Invested
$290.11
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$438.89
Record
30%
11-26 (37)
Invested
$220
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$729.23
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$453.54
Value
$469.07
PnL
+$15.53
Record
84%
2440-449 (2889)
GohstCTR<$100Invested
$4.16
Value
$0.56
PnL
-$3.6
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.