Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 21¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$3.4K
$-1.1K
46¢ → 20.5¢
-55% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
1235h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
17 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x8712 | Noavg 56¢ | $1.1K | $1.6K | +$470 | 30% 102-237 (339) |
 seal7CTR | Yesavg 43.9¢ | $2.1K | $1.0K | $-1.1K | 49% 287-300 (587) |
 PaddyAlphaARB<$100 | Yesavg 37.5¢ | $625.89 | $497.73 | -$128.16 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74.6¢ | $301.86 | $321.74 | +$17.92 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37.5¢ | $321.83 | $175.99 | -$146.08 | |
 DragontreeCTR | Yesavg 54.9¢ | $433.49 | $161.98 | -$271.51 | 58% 1250-888 (2138) |
 clazzy1CTR | Yesavg 66.9¢ | $267.5 | $82 | -$185.5 | 62% 413-249 (662) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.8¢ | $62.95 | $52.06 | -$10.89 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
ME melonmanm<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $4.36 | $5.33 | +$0.97 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
0x8712Invested
$1,119.99
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$470
Record
30%
102-237 (339)
seal7CTRInvested
$2,142.9
Value
$1.0K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
49%
287-300 (587)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100Invested
$625.89
Value
$497.73
PnL
-$128.16
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Both legs:
DragontreeCTRInvested
$433.49
Value
$161.98
PnL
-$271.51
Record
58%
1250-888 (2138)
clazzy1CTRInvested
$267.5
Value
$82
PnL
-$185.5
Record
62%
413-249 (662)
Invested
$62.95
Value
$52.06
PnL
-$10.89
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Invested
$4.36
Value
$5.33
PnL
+$0.97
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.