Will the Houston Texans make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 66¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 5, 2027

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Tue, Jan 5, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$55.15

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 66¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,952

Combined PnL+$70.24

Yes4 traders

Total Value$256.69

Total Shares755

Combined PnL-$15.09

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TimeTraveler	Noavg 54.3¢	$515.17	$659.22	+$144.05	41% 2002-2835 (4837)
JustADonk	Noavg 66.2¢	$262.24	$261.48	-$0.76	55% 913-754 (1667)
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR	Yesavg 36¢	$235.27	$222.29	-$12.98	43% 469-622 (1091)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 66.5¢	$334.53	$158.99	-$72.52	35% 17316-32015 (49331)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$33.83	$19.7	+$1.92	52% 1168-1072 (2240)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 68¢	$26.33	$17.38	-$0.53	57% 17750-13286 (31036)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 42.5¢	$51.49	$10.95	-$4.04	48% 6843-7476 (14319)
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$3.76	$3.76	+$0	66% 918-479 (1397)

TimeTraveler

Invested

$515.17

Value

$659.22

PnL

+$144.05

Record

41%

2002-2835 (4837)

JustADonk

Invested

$262.24

Value

$261.48

PnL

-$0.76

Record

55%

913-754 (1667)

0x53eCc53E7CTR

Yes

Invested

$235.27

Value

$222.29

PnL

-$12.98

Record

43%

469-622 (1091)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$334.53

Value

$158.99

PnL

-$72.52

Record

35%

17316-32015 (49331)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.83

Value

$19.7

PnL

+$1.92

Record

52%

1168-1072 (2240)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.33

Value

$17.38

PnL

-$0.53

Record

57%

17750-13286 (31036)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.49

Value

$10.95

PnL

-$4.04

Record

48%

6843-7476 (14319)

ndb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.76

Value

$3.76

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

918-479 (1397)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.