Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $82 held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$82.16

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Entry

2.1¢ → 0.1¢

-98% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$52.57

Total Shares105,141

Combined PnL$-2.2K

No2 traders

Total Value$29.59

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$0.95

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

54 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NE neymar1CTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$280	$31.05	-$248.84	30% 324-771 (1095)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 97¢	$23.86	$24.59	+$0.73	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
RO rocroiCTR	Yesavg 4.8¢	$1.3K	$13.18	$-1.3K	54% 27-23 (50)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$4.78	$5	+$0.22	73% 41-15 (56)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$382.34	$4.56	-$377.78	39% 196-304 (500)
0X 0x20D6436849F930584892730C7F96eBB2Ac763856-1768642056357CTR	Yesavg 4¢	$207.46	$2.59	-$204.86	52% 747-702 (1449)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$19.65	$0.86	-$51.04	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yes	$40.01	$0.33	-$18.65	72% 8306-3183 (11489)

neymar1CTR

Yes

Invested

$280

Value

$31.05

PnL

-$248.84

Record

30%

324-771 (1095)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$23.86

Value

$24.59

PnL

+$0.73

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

rocroiCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,268.66

Value

$13.18

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

27-23 (50)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.78

Value

PnL

+$0.22

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$382.34

Value

$4.56

PnL

-$377.78

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

0x20D6436849F930584892730C7F96eBB2Ac763856-1768642056357CTR

Yes

Invested

$207.46

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$204.86

Record

52%

747-702 (1449)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.65

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$51.04

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.01

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$18.65

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

54 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.