Consensus PnL $595K · win rate 53% (576–519, n=1095) · PM monthly #70 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$594.8K
Record
576W / 519L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 1095 settled
Batting Avg
65.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1550
Source
PM monthly #70
Trades
1,772
Markets
1,439
Volume
$18.6M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 6 on the consensus side (83%)- Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $1.3K · now 3¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (88% of 16)
- Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $1.0K · now 4¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (86% of 14)
- Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $303 · now 14¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $195 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (91% of 11)
- Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $131 · now 2¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
Specialties
987 settled consensus markets · held side won 58% at an average entry of 50¢- College Football
+42 pts
side won 100% of 26 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +25%
- NFL
+37 pts
side won 85% of 41 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +34%
- MLB
+22 pts
side won 74% of 126 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +19%
Weakest: MMA — held side won 44% of 16 at an average 52¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI −14%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 26% of 119)
- 30–50¢: 42%(won 54% of 418)
- 50–70¢: 33%(won 63% of 322)
- 70¢ and up: 13%(won 90% of 128)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.