Consensus PnL $156K · win rate 33% (355–716, n=1071) · was PM monthly #414 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$156.0K
Record
355W / 716L
Win Rate
33.0%
of 1071 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2171
Source
PM monthly #414
Trades
499
Markets
1,161
Volume
$1.4M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 12 on the consensus side (83%)- Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $3.5K · now 5¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
- Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $2.2K · now 23¢ · in at 17¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $2.1K · now 11¢ · in at 6¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $1.6K · now 28¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $262 · now 7¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
- Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $179 · now 7¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $174 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes $165 · now 6¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
Specialties
454 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 37¢- MLB
+58 pts
side won 100% of 48 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +55%
- College Football
+68 pts
side won 100% of 15 · avg entry 32¢
ROI +64%
- NFL
+48 pts
side won 83% of 175 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +54%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 32%(won 66% of 146)
- 30–50¢: 46%(won 87% of 207)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 96% of 97)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 100% of 4)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.