Will the Minnesota Vikings make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 75¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 25, 2027

Yes75¢No25¢Ends Mon, Jan 25, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$88.93

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 74.5¢

+27% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes75%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$462.92

Total Shares605

Combined PnL+$114.07

No4 traders

Total Value$221

Total Shares880

Combined PnL-$25.14

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-34 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x53eCc53E7	Yesavg 54¢	$243.38	$335.77	+$92.39	43% 469-622 (1091)
TimeTravelerARB<$100	Noavg 23.5¢	$110.44	$167.34	+$49.68	41% 2001-2835 (4836)
└ No leg	Noavg 23.5¢	$124.91	$92.86	+$10.4
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31¢	$27.99	$74.48	+$39.27
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Noavg 21.5¢	$135.68	$160.93	+$25.25	50% 1694-1680 (3374)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 26¢	$363.17	$154.11	-$23.1	35% 17297-31961 (49258)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 74.5¢	$81.71	$90.5	-$36.75
└ No leg	Noavg 26¢	$94.56	$63.61	+$13.65
extractive-manatee	Yesavg 72¢	$244.97	$127.15	+$21.68	33% 537-1072 (1609)
AN ancianoCTR	Noavg 60.5¢	$124.96	$52.7	-$72.27	52% 1167-1072 (2239)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Noavg 24.1¢	$48.3	$3.88	+$20.58	45% 2388-2953 (5341)
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$2.2	$3.5	+$1.3	66% 917-479 (1396)

0x53eCc53E7

Yes

Invested

$243.38

Value

$335.77

PnL

+$92.39

Record

43%

469-622 (1091)

TimeTravelerARB<$100

Invested

$110.44

Value

$167.34

PnL

+$49.68

Record

41%

2001-2835 (4836)

Both legs:

No$124.9123.5¢+$10.4

Yes$27.9931¢+$39.27

ABC12345654321CTR

Invested

$135.68

Value

$160.93

PnL

+$25.25

Record

50%

1694-1680 (3374)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$363.17

Value

$154.11

PnL

-$23.1

Record

35%

17297-31961 (49258)

Both legs:

Yes$81.7174.5¢-$36.75

No$94.5626¢+$13.65

extractive-manatee

Yes

Invested

$244.97

Value

$127.15

PnL

+$21.68

Record

33%

537-1072 (1609)

ancianoCTR

Invested

$124.96

Value

$52.7

PnL

-$72.27

Record

52%

1167-1072 (2239)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Invested

$48.3

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$20.58

Record

45%

2388-2953 (5341)

ndb1CTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$1.3

Record

66%

917-479 (1396)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-34 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.