Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $392 held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$391.63

Combined PnL

-$451.9

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.3¢

-59% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$355.5

Total Shares142,202

Combined PnL-$452.12

No3 traders

Total Value$36.12

Total Shares36

Combined PnL+$0.22

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$533.7	$247.75	-$285.94	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$161	$87.5	-$73.43	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 99¢	$25.95	$26.14	+$0.19	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NE neymar1CTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$112	$20	-$92	30% 324-771 (1095)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.97	$4.99	+$0.02	73% 41-15 (56)
DI Diabolical-Prize<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5	$4.99	+$0.02	48% 175-192 (367)
0X 0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.38	$0.25	-$0.75	53% 3486-3070 (6556)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$533.7

Value

$247.75

PnL

-$285.94

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$161

Value

$87.5

PnL

-$73.43

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$25.95

Value

$26.14

PnL

+$0.19

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

neymar1CTR

Yes

Invested

$112

Value

$20

PnL

-$92

Record

30%

324-771 (1095)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Diabolical-Prize<$100

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

175-192 (367)

0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

53%

3486-3070 (6556)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.