Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $29 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$29.14
-$43.2
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
58 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $16.68 | $16.91 | +$0.23 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $4.97 | $5 | +$0.03 | 73% 41-15 (56) |
DI Diabolical-Prize<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0.03 | 48% 175-192 (367) |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $53.55 | $1 | +$1 | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.65 | $0.65 | -$38.91 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 bernardbulletinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $5.15 | $0.52 | -$4.64 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
0X 0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $1 | $0.06 | -$0.94 | 53% 3486-3070 (6556) |
Invested
$16.68
Value
$16.91
PnL
+$0.23
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
Invested
$4.97
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.03
Record
73%
41-15 (56)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
175-192 (367)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100Invested
$53.55
Value
$1
PnL
+$1
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$0.65
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$38.91
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100Invested
$5.15
Value
$0.52
PnL
-$4.64
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$0.94
Record
53%
3486-3070 (6556)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.