Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$1.1K
$200.44
76.7¢ → 88.5¢
+15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
721h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 libratus1 | Noavg 77.3¢ | $620.63 | $911.08 | +$290.45 | 63% 642-372 (1014) |
HI hithitfar<$100 | Noavg 74.8¢ | $59.22 | $64.91 | +$5.7 | 58% 640-469 (1109) |
DE dedidancCTR | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $146.09 | $55.69 | -$90.41 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 67.9¢ | $31.56 | $44.75 | +$13.19 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
TR troimCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.2¢ | $68.8 | $40 | -$23.4 | 36% 397-691 (1088) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate<$100 | Noavg 76.5¢ | $15.47 | $20.8 | +$5.34 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $7.92 | $7.49 | -$0.43 | 63% 166-99 (265) |
libratus1Invested
$620.63
Value
$911.08
PnL
+$290.45
Record
63%
642-372 (1014)
Invested
$59.22
Value
$64.91
PnL
+$5.7
Record
58%
640-469 (1109)
Invested
$146.09
Value
$55.69
PnL
-$90.41
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
Invested
$31.56
Value
$44.75
PnL
+$13.19
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$68.8
Value
$40
PnL
-$23.4
Record
36%
397-691 (1088)
Contentious-Dinnerdate<$100Invested
$15.47
Value
$20.8
PnL
+$5.34
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$7.49
PnL
-$0.43
Record
63%
166-99 (265)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.