Consensus PnL $59K · win rate 67% (410–205, n=615) · hand-picked wallet · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$59.3K
Record
410W / 205L
Win Rate
67.0%
of 615 settled
Batting Avg
56.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#843
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
15,402
Markets
1,090
Volume
$1.2M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 8 on the consensus side (75%)- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?No $911 · now 89¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Yes $261 · now 13¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (25% of 8)
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes $98 · now 55¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (55% of 11)
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?Yes $79 · now 93¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Yes $68 · now 12¢ · in at 78¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes $60 · now 30¢ · in at 24¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Yes $42 · now 11¢ · in at 66¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes $32 · now 20¢ · in at 22¢with the consensus (71% of 14)
Specialties
803 settled consensus markets · held side won 75% at an average entry of 71¢- Tech
+7 pts
side won 75% of 325 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +7%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 83% of 229 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +3%
- Soccer
+16 pts
side won 54% of 24 · avg entry 39¢
ROI −2%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 67% of 43 at an average 71¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 5% of 147)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 43% of 49)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 82% of 67)
- 70¢ and up: 67%(won 97% of 540)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.