Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 13¢ · $827 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 29%
$827.23
$94.09
46.5¢ → 12.5¢
-73% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
683h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
7 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE dedidanc | Noavg 51¢ | $157.37 | $251.57 | +$66.39 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 47.9¢ | $260.34 | $201.85 | -$58.49 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
 KimchiCapital | Noavg 27.7¢ | $38.8 | $114.12 | +$65.5 | 75% 540-176 (716) |
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876 | Noavg 35.7¢ | $48.92 | $111.67 | +$47.67 | 45% 112-138 (250) |
HI hithitfarCTR | Yesavg 43¢ | $8.98 | $79.34 | -$38.55 | 58% 640-469 (1109) |
 iutwpfal<$100 | Noavg 81.5¢ | $61.72 | $66.63 | +$4.91 | 57% 412-313 (725) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $66.07 | $2.05 | +$6.67 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
Invested
$157.37
Value
$251.57
PnL
+$66.39
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
Invested
$260.34
Value
$201.85
PnL
-$58.49
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
KimchiCapitalInvested
$38.8
Value
$114.12
PnL
+$65.5
Record
75%
540-176 (716)
Invested
$48.92
Value
$111.67
PnL
+$47.67
Record
45%
112-138 (250)
Invested
$8.98
Value
$79.34
PnL
-$38.55
Record
58%
640-469 (1109)
iutwpfal<$100Invested
$61.72
Value
$66.63
PnL
+$4.91
Record
57%
412-313 (725)
Invested
$66.07
Value
$2.05
PnL
+$6.67
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.