Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 30¢ · $949 held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 43%
$948.53
$124.52
64.5¢ → 29.5¢
-54% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTraveler | Yesavg 32.1¢ | $235.6 | $518.62 | +$249.29 | 41% 2001-2835 (4836) |
 extractive-manatee | Yes | $38.83 | $117.99 | +$49.18 | 33% 537-1072 (1609) |
AN ancianoCTR | Noavg 68¢ | $264.35 | $113.8 | -$147.87 | 52% 1167-1072 (2239) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 43.7¢ | $620.49 | $112.81 | +$42.82 | 50% 1694-1680 (3374) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR | Noavg 62.8¢ | $151.2 | $58.77 | -$72.02 | 43% 469-622 (1091) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $8.7 | $17.4 | -$0.15 | 17% 260-1312 (1572) |
GA Gaditima<$100 | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $14.32 | $9.14 | +$3.26 | 48% 6827-7447 (14274) |
TimeTravelerInvested
$235.6
Value
$518.62
PnL
+$249.29
Record
41%
2001-2835 (4836)
extractive-manateeInvested
$38.83
Value
$117.99
PnL
+$49.18
Record
33%
537-1072 (1609)
Invested
$264.35
Value
$113.8
PnL
-$147.87
Record
52%
1167-1072 (2239)
Invested
$620.49
Value
$112.81
PnL
+$42.82
Record
50%
1694-1680 (3374)
Invested
$151.2
Value
$58.77
PnL
-$72.02
Record
43%
469-622 (1091)
Invested
$8.7
Value
$17.4
PnL
-$0.15
Record
17%
260-1312 (1572)
Invested
$14.32
Value
$9.14
PnL
+$3.26
Record
48%
6827-7447 (14274)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.