Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 0%-3%?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 75¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$1.2K
$182.89
78.2¢ → 74.8¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
73h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F | Noavg 76.1¢ | $264.07 | $259.56 | -$4.51 | 31% 1407-3193 (4600) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 80.9¢ | $280.07 | $258.81 | -$21.44 | 72% 6934-2737 (9671) |
PI piepedCTR | Yesavg 17.2¢ | $172.41 | $252.29 | +$78.88 | 41% 74-107 (181) |
ZE zerosmartCTR | Yesavg 20.1¢ | $136.11 | $170.86 | +$35.09 | 48% 66-72 (138) |
LA lava-lavaCTR | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $73.36 | $170.1 | +$96.74 | 43% 535-721 (1256) |
SP SPLPB<$100 | Noavg 76.1¢ | $52.55 | $51.65 | -$0.9 | 24% 666-2083 (2749) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 76.6¢ | $41.66 | $40.69 | -$0.98 | 23% 177-601 (778) |
Invested
$264.07
Value
$259.56
PnL
-$4.51
Record
31%
1407-3193 (4600)
Invested
$280.07
Value
$258.81
PnL
-$21.44
Record
72%
6934-2737 (9671)
Invested
$172.41
Value
$252.29
PnL
+$78.88
Record
41%
74-107 (181)
Invested
$136.11
Value
$170.86
PnL
+$35.09
Record
48%
66-72 (138)
Invested
$73.36
Value
$170.1
PnL
+$96.74
Record
43%
535-721 (1256)
Invested
$52.55
Value
$51.65
PnL
-$0.9
Record
24%
666-2083 (2749)
Invested
$41.66
Value
$40.69
PnL
-$0.98
Record
23%
177-601 (778)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.