Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$5.5K
$460.09
90.9¢ → 96.5¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Late
504h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 90.9¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$123.51 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
CO Contestable-Parfait | Noavg 90.6¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | +$226.06 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
PL plumbis | Noavg 91.1¢ | $911 | $965 | +$56 | 57% 51-39 (90) |
 JJo | Noavg 91.4¢ | $913.99 | $964.99 | +$53 | 66% 944-496 (1440) |
RO rocky42019<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $80.92 | $84.48 | +$3.55 | 42% 1725-2358 (4083) |
 elmcap2<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $23.02 | $22.26 | +$1.54 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $7.04 | $3.57 | -$3.58 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
Invested
$1,799.86
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$123.51
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$1,738.88
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$226.06
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
Invested
$911
Value
$965
PnL
+$56
Record
57%
51-39 (90)
JJoInvested
$913.99
Value
$964.99
PnL
+$53
Record
66%
944-496 (1440)
Invested
$80.92
Value
$84.48
PnL
+$3.55
Record
42%
1725-2358 (4083)
elmcap2<$100Invested
$23.02
Value
$22.26
PnL
+$1.54
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
Invested
$7.04
Value
$3.57
PnL
-$3.58
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.