Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (78%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 22¢ · $638 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 57%
$637.88
$276.11
11.5¢ → 22¢
+91% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
699h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
16 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WA wan123CTR | Noavg 10.1¢ | $168.2 | $366.28 | +$198.08 | 39% 196-304 (500) |
FL flawfenceCTR | Noavg 14¢ | $70 | $110 | +$40 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
 nicoco89CTR<$100 | Noavg 13.9¢ | $59.3 | $93.69 | +$34.33 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $27.38 | $29.23 | +$1.48 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Yesavg 74.8¢ | $28.33 | $28.99 | +$0.65 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
 bernardbulletinCTR<$100 | Noavg 15.7¢ | $3.91 | $5.48 | +$1.56 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 79¢ | $4.22 | $4.22 | +$0 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
Invested
$168.2
Value
$366.28
PnL
+$198.08
Record
39%
196-304 (500)
Invested
$70
Value
$110
PnL
+$40
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
nicoco89CTR<$100Invested
$59.3
Value
$93.69
PnL
+$34.33
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
Invested
$27.38
Value
$29.23
PnL
+$1.48
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
Invested
$28.33
Value
$28.99
PnL
+$0.65
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100Invested
$3.91
Value
$5.48
PnL
+$1.56
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
Invested
$4.22
Value
$4.22
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.