Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 82¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 4
🔬
Research candidate
No
7
No 71%
$11.4K
$408.65
78.5¢ → 81.5¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 82%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Late
297h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 81¢ | $4.0K | $4.1K | +$25 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
 mrworldwide | Noavg 79¢ | $3.6K | $3.7K | +$115.89 | 69% 804-359 (1163) |
AF afdafdafdafdafd | Noavg 74¢ | $2.6K | $2.8K | +$259.02 | 73% 196-73 (269) |
SB sbimbg | Noavg 81¢ | $470.63 | $473.53 | +$2.91 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $142.82 | $288.94 | +$0.37 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
DE dedidanc<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $17.75 | $20.38 | +$2.63 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $12.15 | $14.99 | +$2.84 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
0xheavy888Invested
$4,050
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$25
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
mrworldwideInvested
$3,612.65
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$115.89
Record
69%
804-359 (1163)
Invested
$2,555.65
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$259.02
Record
73%
196-73 (269)
Invested
$470.63
Value
$473.53
PnL
+$2.91
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$142.82
Value
$288.94
PnL
+$0.37
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$17.75
Value
$20.38
PnL
+$2.63
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
Invested
$12.15
Value
$14.99
PnL
+$2.84
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.