Consensus PnL -$22K · win rate 78% (202–57, n=259) · was PM monthly #995 · holds 25 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-22.0K
Record
202W / 57L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 259 settled
Batting Avg
30.8%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#498
Source
PM monthly #995
Trades
350
Markets
337
Volume
$4.1M
Top consensus positions
25 in listed consensus markets · 25 of 25 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $116K · now 96¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $66K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $57K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $46K · now 97¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (90% of 41)
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $41K · now 94¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (42% of 31)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $41K · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No $40K · now 97¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (68% of 34)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $36K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
Specialties
283 settled consensus markets · held side won 78% at an average entry of 82¢- NBA
+4 pts
side won 50% of 18 · avg entry 46¢
ROI 0%
- Politics
+2 pts
side won 90% of 10 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 92% of 48 at an average 97¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −15%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 8% of 13)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 43% of 35)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 36% of 25)
- 70¢ and up: 74%(won 93% of 210)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.