Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 63¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$4.1K
$198.67
61.2¢ → 63¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-6 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
401h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME Melody626 | Yesavg 60.7¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$118.2 | 58% 705-521 (1226) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 28.7¢ | $286.75 | $366.17 | +$79.41 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 61.3¢ | $249.6 | $256.73 | +$7.12 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
SB sbimbg | Yesavg 67¢ | $132.66 | $123.83 | -$7.86 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
CO cowcat | Yesavg 71¢ | $50.7 | $89.11 | +$1.81 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $9.5 | $9.5 | -$0.25 | 50% 7969-8009 (15978) |
PI piepedCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $2.01 | $2.32 | +$0.24 | 42% 71-100 (171) |
Invested
$3,166.99
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$118.2
Record
58%
705-521 (1226)
Invested
$286.75
Value
$366.17
PnL
+$79.41
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$249.6
Value
$256.73
PnL
+$7.12
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$132.66
Value
$123.83
PnL
-$7.86
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$50.7
Value
$89.11
PnL
+$1.81
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$9.5
Value
$9.5
PnL
-$0.25
Record
50%
7969-8009 (15978)
Invested
$2.01
Value
$2.32
PnL
+$0.24
Record
42%
71-100 (171)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.