Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 86¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$15.2K
$914.34
76.6¢ → 85.5¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
682h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
9 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Noavg 73.3¢ | $6.9K | $8.1K | +$1.2K | 61% 203-132 (335) |
 mrworldwide | Noavg 83.9¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$65.25 | 69% 804-359 (1163) |
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR | Yesavg 15.5¢ | $3.2K | $3.1K | -$75.04 | 79% 332-89 (421) |
CO Contestable-Parfait | Noavg 85¢ | $188.7 | $189.81 | +$1.11 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 17.9¢ | $469.5 | $134.71 | -$107.11 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
CO cowcatCTR | Yesavg 37.5¢ | $221.7 | $77.29 | -$124.56 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $1.05 | $1.02 | -$0.04 | 50% 7969-8009 (15978) |
Invested
$6,949.51
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
mrworldwideInvested
$3,436.9
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$65.25
Record
69%
804-359 (1163)
Invested
$3,222.33
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$75.04
Record
79%
332-89 (421)
Invested
$188.7
Value
$189.81
PnL
+$1.11
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
Invested
$469.5
Value
$134.71
PnL
-$107.11
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$221.7
Value
$77.29
PnL
-$124.56
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.02
PnL
-$0.04
Record
50%
7969-8009 (15978)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.