Will the Republican Party win the NY-17 House seat?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 63¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$3.4K
$38.53
62¢ → 63¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
709h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
13 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Noavg 62¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$31.83 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
 ChungvicularCTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $1,000 | $925 | -$75 | 46% 49-57 (106) |
 Ryxon21CTR | Yesavg 29¢ | $145.4 | $185.82 | +$40.42 | 71% 318-130 (448) |
CO cowcatCTR | Yesavg 26.6¢ | $126.16 | $163.43 | +$46.08 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 38¢ | $58.98 | $136.03 | -$6.56 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $56.74 | $58.31 | +$1.58 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $10.98 | $11.16 | +$0.18 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
Invested
$1,916.76
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$31.83
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
ChungvicularCTRInvested
$1,000
Value
$925
PnL
-$75
Record
46%
49-57 (106)
Ryxon21CTRInvested
$145.4
Value
$185.82
PnL
+$40.42
Record
71%
318-130 (448)
Invested
$126.16
Value
$163.43
PnL
+$46.08
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$58.98
Value
$136.03
PnL
-$6.56
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$56.74
Value
$58.31
PnL
+$1.58
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$10.98
Value
$11.16
PnL
+$0.18
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.