Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 14¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$840.08

Smart Money Entry

22.1¢ → 13.5¢

-39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares10,779

Combined PnL-$903.74

No2 traders

Total Value$842.52

Total Shares974

Combined PnL+$63.66

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

1653h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 20.8¢	$1.4K	$899.76	-$488.51	47% 474-534 (1008)
scottilicious	Noavg 80¢	$772.46	$835.22	+$62.77	82% 945-201 (1146)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 15.5¢	$344.41	$299.97	-$44.44	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 36.8¢	$446.3	$154.7	-$250.83	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$16.16	$72.17	-$16.31	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 64¢	$132.26	$28.62	-$103.64	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
bosshog<$100	Noavg 76¢	$6.41	$7.3	+$0.89	72% 1052-415 (1467)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,388.27

Value

$899.76

PnL

-$488.51

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

scottilicious

Invested

$772.46

Value

$835.22

PnL

+$62.77

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$344.41

Value

$299.97

PnL

-$44.44

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$446.3

Value

$154.7

PnL

-$250.83

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.16

Value

$72.17

PnL

-$16.31

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.26

Value

$28.62

PnL

-$103.64

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

bosshog<$100

Invested

$6.41

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$0.89

Record

72%

1052-415 (1467)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

1653h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.0%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$566.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

666.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.