Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 89¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$4.3K
$191.8
82.3¢ → 88.5¢
+8% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
12 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO Contestable-Parfait | Noavg 86¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$88.16 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
 Chungvicular | Noavg 71.2¢ | $775.8 | $964.65 | +$188.85 | 46% 49-57 (106) |
CO cocococococo<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $84 | $92.93 | +$8.93 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
 mrworldwide<$100 | Noavg 75.3¢ | $79.68 | $87.06 | +$7.38 | 69% 804-359 (1163) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR | Yesavg 43.7¢ | $142.02 | $37.4 | -$104.62 | 47% 4649-5169 (9818) |
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $8 | $8.85 | +$0.85 | 67% 751-378 (1129) |
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $3.37 | $5.62 | +$2.25 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
Invested
$3,054.42
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$88.16
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
ChungvicularInvested
$775.8
Value
$964.65
PnL
+$188.85
Record
46%
49-57 (106)
Invested
$84
Value
$92.93
PnL
+$8.93
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
mrworldwide<$100Invested
$79.68
Value
$87.06
PnL
+$7.38
Record
69%
804-359 (1163)
Invested
$142.02
Value
$37.4
PnL
-$104.62
Record
47%
4649-5169 (9818)
Invested
$8
Value
$8.85
PnL
+$0.85
Record
67%
751-378 (1129)
Invested
$3.37
Value
$5.62
PnL
+$2.25
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Contestable-Parfait
No — $3.1K
Chungvicular
No — $964.65
cocococococo
No — $92.93
mrworldwide
No — $87.06
0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191
CTRYes — $37.4
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA
No — $8.85
0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836
No — $5.62