Will the Republicans win the Illinois governor race in 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$4.2K
-$118.29
97.3¢ → 99¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
720h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 97.5¢ | $3.7K | $3.7K | +$48.79 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 probability | Noavg 95.9¢ | $217.69 | $224.62 | +$6.92 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 95.5¢ | $239.21 | $189.44 | -$49.77 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
 elmcap2 | Noavg 98¢ | $111 | $109.83 | +$1.05 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
 bernardbulletin<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $9.42 | $9.91 | +$0.48 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $9.65 | $5.42 | -$4.23 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $335.73 | $3.46 | -$121.54 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
Invested
$3,650.1
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$48.79
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
probabilityInvested
$217.69
Value
$224.62
PnL
+$6.92
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
DEGENKHANInvested
$239.21
Value
$189.44
PnL
-$49.77
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
elmcap2Invested
$111
Value
$109.83
PnL
+$1.05
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
bernardbulletin<$100Invested
$9.42
Value
$9.91
PnL
+$0.48
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
Invested
$9.65
Value
$5.42
PnL
-$4.23
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
Invested
$335.73
Value
$3.46
PnL
-$121.54
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.