Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 99¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 86%
$6.9K
$200.6
96¢ → 99.3¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Late
4546h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AngryRhino | Yesavg 96¢ | $4.7K | $4.9K | +$150.42 | 69% 133-59 (192) |
QM QMG-CORE | Yesavg 99.1¢ | $679.46 | $680 | -$2.2 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
TH TheFOMCGambler | Yesavg 91.9¢ | $468.8 | $505.67 | +$35.08 | 76% 102-32 (134) |
 bernardbulletin | Yesavg 96¢ | $480.77 | $496.54 | +$13.77 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
 probability | Yesavg 96.8¢ | $266.91 | $273.3 | +$6.39 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
IM immanuelcan<$100 | Yesavg 93¢ | $27.9 | $65.75 | +$4.14 | 53% 906-789 (1695) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | No | $0.74 | $0.74 | -$7 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
AngryRhinoInvested
$4,734.28
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$150.42
Record
69%
133-59 (192)
Invested
$679.46
Value
$680
PnL
-$2.2
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Invested
$468.8
Value
$505.67
PnL
+$35.08
Record
76%
102-32 (134)
bernardbulletinInvested
$480.77
Value
$496.54
PnL
+$13.77
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
probabilityInvested
$266.91
Value
$273.3
PnL
+$6.39
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$27.9
Value
$65.75
PnL
+$4.14
Record
53%
906-789 (1695)
Invested
$0.74
Value
$0.74
PnL
-$7
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.