Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 82¢ · $9K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 86%
$9.3K
$6.3K
23.4¢ → 81.5¢
+248% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
338 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZP Zptml | Yesavg 23¢ | $1.7K | $5.9K | +$4.2K | 70% 32-14 (46) |
 XieGuangKun | Yesavg 26.1¢ | $865.84 | $2.6K | +$1.7K | 51% 367-349 (716) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer | Yesavg 26.4¢ | $300.71 | $340.38 | +$39.68 | 51% 527-509 (1036) |
 2B9S | Yesavg 9¢ | $36 | $326 | +$290 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
PU PutsOnPeace<$100 | Yesavg 18.8¢ | $18.61 | $81.5 | +$62.89 | 66% 955-482 (1437) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 33.3¢ | $123.11 | $70.81 | -$52.3 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Yesavg 21.1¢ | $12.82 | $49.34 | +$49.34 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
Invested
$1,666.67
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$4.2K
Record
70%
32-14 (46)
XieGuangKunInvested
$865.84
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
51%
367-349 (716)
GenaTheBondKilIerInvested
$300.71
Value
$340.38
PnL
+$39.68
Record
51%
527-509 (1036)
2B9SInvested
$36
Value
$326
PnL
+$290
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Invested
$18.61
Value
$81.5
PnL
+$62.89
Record
66%
955-482 (1437)
Invested
$123.11
Value
$70.81
PnL
-$52.3
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$12.82
Value
$49.34
PnL
+$49.34
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.