Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$1.1K
-$72.87
0.7¢ → 0.7¢
-11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
81 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NooseracCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $863.14 | $663.98 | -$199.16 | 52% 5832-5416 (11248) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $140.75 | $304.95 | +$164.24 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $146.41 | $94.36 | -$52.05 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $23.37 | $24.44 | +$1.07 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $53.55 | $13 | +$13 | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
DI Diabolical-Prize<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $5 | $4.97 | +$0.01 | 48% 175-192 (367) |
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $4.97 | +$0.02 | 73% 41-15 (56) |
NooseracCTRInvested
$863.14
Value
$663.98
PnL
-$199.16
Record
52%
5832-5416 (11248)
Invested
$140.75
Value
$304.95
PnL
+$164.24
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$146.41
Value
$94.36
PnL
-$52.05
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$23.37
Value
$24.44
PnL
+$1.07
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100Invested
$53.55
Value
$13
PnL
+$13
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.97
PnL
+$0.01
Record
48%
175-192 (367)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.97
PnL
+$0.02
Record
73%
41-15 (56)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.